Posted by
Paul Wamack on Tuesday, July 15, 2008 8:50:09 PM
THE SAUDIS ARE CONCERNED -- AND SHOULD BE!
OR ... A History Lesson in five acts.
Act One: In the middle of the 1800s, crude oil was considered a nuisance. It killed crops when it would come bubbling up out of the ground. There were no known uses for it, except perhaps as an occasional ingredient in Dr. FeelGood’s All Purpose Elixir. No one wanted this black oozy stuff. It was just some unwanted trash.
Act Two: Let’s roll forward fifty years. At the beginning of the 1900s, with the coming of the motor car, several sources of fuel were tested. The fuel that won early favoritism was gasoline, processed from the unwanted black ooze. It seemed like such a good idea -- to be able to put this nasty trashy material to good use. So, as the motor cars became popular, so too grew the industry that took the crude oil from the ground, processed it into gasoline and other useful products and distributed it to roadside fueling stations.
Act Three: Now, let’s look forward another fifty years. By the middle of the 1900s, America was in love with their cars. We built Interstate Highways all across the fruited plain. Then we took to those highways for our family vacations, paying 19-cents a gallon for the fuel to run our big, heavy cars. The classic 1957 Chevrolet was not a fuel-efficient machine; it was a machine of power and style. We drove to the beaches of Florida. We drove to coast of California. We crossed mountains and deserts, burning fuel with happy abandon.
Act Four: Another fifty years pass, welcome to the new millennium, and things are no longer the way they used to be. Environmental protectionists keep us from drilling for much of the oil we have in this country and keep telling us our cars are destroying the planet. More and more, we are buying our fuel from thugs and dictators who take our money and use it to fund terror organizations working against us. The taxes keep pushing the price of gasoline ever higher, as do the speculators. Our family cars are smaller and more fuel efficient than they were fifty years ago, but even so we still cringe at the prices at the pump. The happy abandon is replaced with guilt, fear and misgivings.
It’s obvious to me that there is a change in the offing. Our lives are still arranged for us to be in our cars; commuting from home to work, driving the kids to soccer practice, and taking motor trips to see Grandma for Thanksgiving. But it’s no fun anymore. We are changing our driving habits, but we would rather change our cars. We don’t want to get rid of them. We just want them to be fun again.
If anyone were to take a look, that change is quickly coming. Sure, the Saudis recently agreed to pump more oil; for without our appetite for gasoline, they are back to having nothing but desert sand and some black oozy trashy stuff. But increasing the current supply of oil is not going to work in the not-so-long term. Sure, the same environmentalists that tell us our cars are evil want us to burn corn in with the gas. But it doesn’t really solve the issue, that idea just prolongs it. But true change, a total change in fuel supply, a fundamental change is already cruising into the culture. The “hybrid” cars already try to employ electricity, while still burning some gasoline. That technology is changing rapidly and will soon be coming of age. The Internet tells us even now that we can convert our car to run on water. Hydrogen cells are emerging as an alternative technology to power cars. All these are examples of a marketplace responding to motorists’ discontent, and undoubtedly there are more ideas that have not quite yet come into marketability. These changes have been a long time coming. It takes years to move from a new theoretical design into refitting the factories' machine tools to manufacture these new products, then to distribution and marketing of the new cars and the new power sources. The trend began years ago, and there is no sign of the change slowing now. In fact, market forces seem to suggest that the change will only accelerate into the future.
Act Five: So, rolling ahead another fifty years, it’s unlikely that the internal combustion engine will still be the primary mode of choice on our highways. Children will be wide-eyed as their grandparents talk about how they used to pump gasoline at gas stations, or how they drove a gas-driven auto to take their drivers licensing exam. It’s not clear which technology will gain the market favor over the others. If I could tell that, I would invest heavily in the companies bringing that specific technology to market today. But I can tell that a massive change is coming.
On the downside, all the environmental whackos who obstructed drilling and sounded the drum-beat alarm about the deleterious effects on the planet that our gasoline powered autos are supposedly causing, these doomsayers will never get to see how wrong they were. There is no evidence to support their anxieties now, and changing the technology will make it moot that there isn’t any negative effect on the earth from our cars and never was. In the transition, they will have to find something else to wring their hands about, something else to accuse us of destroying, some other way to make sure that we don’t have too much fun. I’m sure they will rise to that occasion.